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With help from Josh Siegel, Kelsey Tamborrino and Ben Lefebvre
Quick Fix
— Senators are working to refine the Finance Committee’s portion of the megabill, but House hardliners and some GOP senators don’t expect the megabill to pass any time soon.
— Nominations for agencies key to fulfilling the Trump administration’s energy agenda were announced.
— Global oil prices are climbing, but some analysts aren’t fretting.
GOOD MORNING! IT’S WEDNESDAY. I’m your host, Isa Domínguez.
Robert Hall of Entergy is our trivia winner for knowing that Amin Nasser is the CEO of Aramco, which holds a sponsorship deal with FIFA. (Happy game day for those watching Al Ain FC vs. Juventus at Audi Field!)
For today: Which Danish toy company nearly tripled its green investments over the past two years?
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Check out the POLITICO Energy podcast — all the energy and environmental politics and policy news you need to start your day, in just five minutes. Listen and subscribe for free at politico.com/energy-podcast. On today’s episode: Why Senate Finance won’t have the last word on energy tax cuts.
Programming note: We’ll be off this Thursday but will be back in your inboxes on Friday.
A message from Securing America’s Future Energy Alliance:
China knows that energy security and manufacturing define global power. Washington needs to step up: Tell Congress to uphold advanced energy tax credits so America can operate from a position of strength.”
Driving the Day
REVISE, REVISE, REVISE: As senators scramble to pass their version of the megabill next week, some moderate GOP senators insist there’s still time to save eliminated tax credits for the hydrogen and solar sectors. But hardline House GOP lawmakers continue to push the Senate to go even further in fulfilling President Donald Trump’s wish to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act incentives, as our Josh Siegel and Kelsey Tamborrino report.
According to Finance Committee Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), Republicans are “not done writing the bill” and there remains “all kinds of issues that are still being evaluated,” though he declined to detail the discussions beyond saying both hydrogen and solar power are in the mix.
“We are vetting things, and there are a lot of issues in play, you’ve mentioned some of them,” he told POLITICO. “There’s about five dozen more. All I can say is that we are working on it.”
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), a member of the Finance panel who has supported clean energy incentives, echoed Crapo’s statements, saying the text had gotten to a “pretty good place, but there’s still some details we’re working through,” including through member-to-member discussions.
But House Freedom Caucus members are already vowing to vote against the Senate version of the megabill unless the Senate aligns closer to the House-approved deep cuts to the clean energy tax credits.
Texas Republican Rep. Chip Roy told POLITICO he’s “a hard no” against the Finance Committee’s move to extend some of the House’s aggressive phase-out dates. New Jersey Republican Rep. Jeff Van Drew told our Mia McCarthy he would join Roy in opposition.
“It doesn’t make sense to hurt American citizens that need to go to the hospital to benefit foreign energy companies,” Van Drew said.
Still, that’s not stopping some GOP senators such as Environment and Public Works Committee Chair Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) from trying to salvage these credits. She said she’ll be working to extend the hydrogen credit’s phaseout period, which would be eliminated after this year. Without it, she doesn’t think plans to build an Appalachian regional clean hydrogen hub in West Virginia will proceed.
North Dakota Republican Sen. Kevin Cramer said there are Republicans working to save residential solar credits, which would end six months after the megabill’s enactment and would deny investment and production tax credits for solar leasing arrangements with customers.
He dismissed the threat from House hardliners, as he and other Republicans argued the Finance Committee struck a balance that would have to be closely followed for the megabill to receive the required 50 votes it needs to pass.
But with the way the Senate’s version of the megabill stands, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) told POLITICO he thinks it will fail.
“I don’t want to see it fail,” he said. “I want this thing to succeed.”
The stakes couldn’t be higher for groups lobbying for these credit extensions. This morning, the NC League of Conservation Voters and BlueGreen Alliance will be holding a press conference at Tillis’ Greensboro office at 10:30 a.m. to spotlight the impact losing the IRA credits will have on North Carolina’s clean energy sector, especially on residents’ jobs.
The Battery Materials & Technology Coalition, which represents critical mineral and battery companies, will be on the Hill today to meet with Capito and other Republican senators to emphasize the importance of the Clean Electricity Investment Tax Credit (48E) and the Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit (45X), as well as national security supply chain programs.
Responses are pouring in from conservative industry officials too, with leaders from Texas, Indiana, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio and Utah sending a letter to the Senate pushing them to keep 45V and 45Q tax credits, which help advance hydrogen and carbon capture and sequestration projects.
“Now is the time to double down — not step back,” they said, adding that these credits are critical to not just energy, but national security.
A message from Securing America’s Future Energy Alliance:
Around the Agencies
NEW NOMINATIONS: Trump announced the nominations for various agencies and departments, including Katherine Scarlett as the White House Council on Environmental Quality’s leader, long-time Arizona water manager Theodore “Ted” Cooke as Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner and the re-nomination of David Wright as Nuclear Regulatory Commission Chair.
These nominations come at critical points for the Trump administration as it tries to fulfill the president’s energy and environment agenda. Scarlett will oversee the administration’s efforts to hasten permitting and build pipelines, dig more mines and erect data centers. Cooke will work to ensure the availability of supplies across the West along the Colorado River, where seven states are locked in high-stakes negotiations over new rules to share the West’s most important waterway.
For Wright, his confirmation process may be complicated by NRC commissioner Christopher Hanson’s recent termination, which Democrats and nuclear experts say was illegal and challenges the NRC’s independence.
A message from Securing America’s Future Energy Alliance:
Two letters signed by 23 four-star admirals and generals of SAFE’s Energy Security Leadership Council argue for preservation of Sections 45X, 30D, 48C, 48E, and 45Y of the Internal Revenue Code. Billions in planned private investments, over 100,000 American jobs, and critical progress toward onshoring critical mineral processing and battery manufacturing are all at stake. To keep our nation secure and competitive with China, we must protect clean energy tax credits.
Beyond the Beltway
SHOW ME THE SUPPLY DISRUPTION: Oil prices are $10 higher than they were a week ago, and for the Trump administration that might be a good thing.
Historically, all-out fighting between Israel and Iran in a neighborhood home to about a quarter of the seaborne oil trade would have caused prices to head toward the three-digit mark. But oil markets are relatively calm right now. Even though prices are higher than Trump would like, they are not nearly as high as they could be, analysts said.
That’s partly due to the fighting sparing any infrastructure that would significantly crimp the outflow of crude. It’s also partly because oil traders remember how quickly markets bounced back after Iran’s 2019 attack on Saudi Arabia and Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
“Remember what oil prices did?” said Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy and MENA Research at RBC Capital Markets, referring to when crude values rose after Russia’s invasion before receding once the Biden administration and other governments opened their strategic oil reserves to calm the waters.
“Analysts were talking about $200 oil. When that did not materialize, a lot of market participants were like, we overplayed this risk. Investors were burned,” she continued. “The takeaway from market participants now is, ‘Call me when there is a disruption.’”
But it remains to be seen whether the market is being wise or just complacent. If the fighting draws in players beyond Iran and Israel, or if Iran’s government decides to attack Iraq’s oil fields before it itself goes kaput, the Trump administration might have to face rising oil prices just in time for summer driving season. And it would have fewer tools at its disposal to lower them than Biden did, said Mona Dajani, Baker Botts attorney and global co-chair of the firm’s energy, infrastructure and hydrogen teams.
“The market knows the SPR is already at low levels, which really limits its credibility as a shock absorber,” Dajani told ME. That leaves the administration only one real choice: soothing the market by appearing to be in firm control of the situation, Dajani said.
According to Dajani, DOE Secretary Chris Wright leaving the Atlantic Council Energy Forum before he was scheduled to give a keynote address may have been part of this strategy. (A DOE spokesperson did not reply to a question asking what Wright was doing about the Iran-Israel war.)
“At the end of the day, perception is reality,” Dajani added. “I think Secretary Wright cancelling an appearance definitely sends the message that they’re watching closely, and they want the market, the voters, Iran and Israel to see they’re engaged.”
ON THE GLOBAL STAGE: The World Economic Forum released its Energy Transition Index 2025 report today. The U.S. stands in 17th place overall, sitting five places behind China, a key competitor in the Artificial Intelligence race. But the U.S. took the top spot globally when it comes to energy security because of its focus on innovation and reliance on various sources of energy.
Movers and Shakers
– Jigar Shah joins the board of directors at the Center for Sustainable Energy. He was previously the director of the Department of Energy Loan Programs Office.
The Grid
NAACP launches lawsuit over pollution from Musk’s xAI, via POLITICO’s E&E News
Miscalculation by Spanish power grid operator REE contributed to massive blackout, report finds, via Reuters
Are central Iowa’s growing data centers causing the water crisis? Here’s what to know, via the Des Moines Register
On The Calendar
WEDNESDAY
9 a.m. — The Atlantic Council holds its ninth annual 2025 Global Energy Forum.
10 a.m. — The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee holds a hearing on the president’s proposed budget request for FY2026 for the Energy Department.
1 p.m. — The American Association for the Advancement of Science’s Evidence in Public Issues Center holds a virtual briefing on “Planning for Safety: How Land Use Decisions Shape Flood Risk.”
1:30 p.m. — The EFI Foundation holds a virtual discussion on “Exploring the Future of Geologic Hydrogen: Defining the Path Ahead.”
2 p.m. — USGS briefing on a report estimating undiscovered oil and gas under U.S. public lands. Click here to join.
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